The past trading week brought long-awaited relief on the geopolitical front, yet delivered fresh surprises for financial market participants. Progress in peace talks between the US and Iran opened up the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a massive collapse in commodity prices. However, hopes for easing US monetary conditions fell flat: fresh macro data and hawkish Fed rhetoric kept the US dollar (DXY) near multi-week highs, forcing major global currencies and precious metals to remain on the defensive.
Oil (Brent < $73 / WTI ~$69): The black gold market suffered its worst week in a month, losing about 10% of its value. The main catalyst was the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in Persian Gulf exports back to roughly 75% of pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia kicked off active loading at its Ras Tanura terminal, while the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar continue to ramp up supply. A localized missile strike on the Ever Lovely tanker on Thursday caused only a brief 2% price rebound, after which Trump confirmed the waterway remains safe, and the decline resumed.
Gold (~$4,040): The precious metal posted a modest gain on Friday following the PCE inflation report, which matched market forecasts and cooled fears of ultra-radical rate hikes. Nevertheless, gold ended the week 3% lower—marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline—due to the firm stance of the new Fed Chairman Warsh, who reaffirmed that tackling inflation remains the top priority. Markets are currently pricing in three Fed rate hikes this year, with a 62% probability of the cycle starting in September.
Silver (>$58): Displayed weaker performance, losing nearly 10% over the week. As an industrial metal, silver reacts more sharply to global growth slowdown risks and maintains a prolonged downward trend, having given back nearly half its value since the record highs in January.
US indices closed the week predominantly in the red (Nasdaq 100 -0,7%, S&P 500 -0,5%, Dow flat). Investors have begun questioning whether the colossal spending on AI infrastructure is truly justified.
Nvidia, Tesla, and Oracle shares dipped by over 1%.
Micron and Sandisk tumbled 5% amid concerns over slowing demand for memory chips.
Rumors of a potential delay to OpenAI's IPO in a bid to cut computing costs added further downward pressure.
Insight: The traditional sector (the Dow index) currently looks more stable than tech, but the balance of power could shift on Monday when Alphabet replaces Verizon in the index.
Despite Friday's upward revision of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 49.5 (aided by falling gasoline prices), long-term inflation expectations among Americans remain high at 4.6%. This gives the Fed a free hand and keeps the medium-term trend firmly in favor of the greenback.
EUR/USD: A major downside reversal is confirmed on the global chart. While a three-wave upside correction is unfolding on hourly timeframes, it is purely technical in nature. The priority remains selling the Euro, with the initial medium-term target sitting around 1.1208.
GBP/USD: The Pound is losing its bullish momentum and has broken down out of a months-long consolidation pattern. Any local rebounds are currently viewed as a retest of the broken levels and a prime opportunity to build new short positions.
USD/JPY: Absolute dollar dominance. The multi-year uptrend remains firmly intact, and local corrections are quickly bought up. The only limiting factor and risk for buyers remains the threat of direct currency interventions by the Japanese authorities.
The commodity shock triggered by de-escalation in the Middle East has cooled inflation pressures, but the rigid monetary path of the Warsh-led Fed keeps the markets on edge. In an environment of high volatility and "choppy" charts, a systematic approach is what wins.
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