This week’s U.S. dollar weakness gave the EUR/USD pair a boost; however, it was corrected later fueled by technical factors and a jump in demand for safe-haven assets due to weak stats from the United States.
Possible technical scenarios:
On the daily chart, the increase in the EUR/USD pair reversed downward after reaching the resistance area between 1.0936 and 1.0958. From a technical standpoint, the pair has a movement range toward the nearest support at 1.0808. That being said, if the U.S. dollar continues to fall amid the news releases and EUR/USD consolidates above the resistance at 1.0958, the growth may continue to 1.1032 drawn along the highs from 2.02.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The end of the trading week will be marked by a thin market. There will be a day off in the United States and the euro area due to the beginning of the long Easter weekend.
That said, we are still expecting critical figures on United States employment to be released at 12:30 pm GMT, which will continue to have its impact on the market early next week.
The forecast suggests a change in the number of jobs in the private sector and government agencies—Nonfarm Payrolls—totaling 239 thousand compared to 311 thousand last month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6%, as in the previous period.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart of the EUR/USD pair, a bearish flag may be forming following a bounce off of the resistance at 1.0958. This does not exclude the likelihood of a price drop to support at 1.0808.
After hitting a ten-month high on Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair has corrected, and its further behavior will now depend on how the U.S. dollar reacts to the news.
Possible technical scenarios:
We can see that the GBP/USD price on the daily chart has consolidated above 1.2410 and is attempting to pull away from it upwards. If the horizontal line remains standing as support, it will enable the quotes to continue rising to the area of 1.2600. If this is not the case, the quotes are likely to return to 1.2323.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
On Friday, the United States and the United Kingdom are observing Good Friday. That said, market players are waiting for the release of the U.S. labor market stats at 12:30 pm GMT. Given the upcoming days off, this news may be affecting the dynamics of the U.S. currency early next week.
The number of jobs in the private sector and government agencies (Nonfarm Payrolls) is projected at 239 thousand compared to 311 thousand last month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6%, as previously.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart of the GBP/USD pair, we are witnessing the formation of local support at 1.2422 and a reversal from it upwards. From a technical standpoint, if the price hits the highs of the Tuesday’s trading session, this will enable the pair to strengthen further.
USD/JPY was cautiously recovering on Thursday. The success of the increase in the coming trading sessions will depend on the U.S. currency volatility amid the news releases.
Possible technical scenarios:
USD/JPY quotes are trading above the support at 131.25, despite this level’s strength being put to the test. If the horizontal line stands tall, the next growth target will be the resistance at 133.59.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The trading week will continue as per usual on Friday in Japan, while the United States is gearing up for a long Easter weekend. The market will remain thin against this backdrop. At the same time, we are expecting the release of the U.S. employment figures. The volatile reaction typically caused by this news release is likely to be delayed and will partially affect the market situation next week.
At 12:30 pm GMT, we are expecting figures on the number of jobs in the private sector and government agencies (Nonfarm Payrolls). It is projected at 239 thousand compared to 311 thousand last month. In the meantime, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%, as previously.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart of the USD/JPY pair, the boundaries of the local trading range are between the two dotted lines, 130.56 and 132.21. In this area, the pair has a sufficient movement range for recovery.
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