The EUR/USD pair has been demonstrating a steady recovery this week amid improved risk appetite. Meanwhile, shrinking demand for safe assets is putting pressure on the dynamics of the U.S. dollar.
Possible technical scenarios:
On the daily chart, EUR/USD spotted support at 1.0713 marked with green dotted lines. After the quotes pass the 1.0808 level and consolidate above it, the pair will be able to travel toward the next target at 1.0958. If it fails to overcome 1.0808, the price may return to support at 1.0713.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
In the first half of the week, the news background will be mostly calm. On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar may be sensitive to the release of the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 2:00 pm GMT. The forecast suggests a decrease in the March figures from 102.9 to 101.0.
Next up, the Gfk German Consumer Climate Index for the month of April will be released on Wednesday at 6:00 am GMT and is expected to decline to -29.0 from -30.5 previously.
On the same day, we are expecting a release of the U.S. Pending Home Sales at 2:00 pm GMT. The month-over-month figures are projected at -3.0% against 8.1% in the previous period.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart, we can clearly see the EUR/USD pair’s attempt to consolidate in the range between 1.0808 and 1.0985. If its support remains standing, the next growth target would be the March 23 high.
The GBP/USD pair has received a boost this week amid the U.S. currency’s decline. A week earlier, the pound sterling also went up against the backdrop of accelerating inflation and the Bank of England’s rate hike.
Possible technical scenarios:
The GBP/USD pair continues to consolidate below the resistance at 1.2323. From this point on, we may face two likely scenarios: the level breakout and further growth towards 1.2146, or a reversal from the horizontal line at 1.2323 with a subsequent decline to support at 1.2146.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
In the first half of the week, the rhetoric of the Bank of England’s Governor Andrew Bailey may affect the pound sterling’s behavior.
In the meantime, the U.S. dollar may be volatile in response to the release of critical macroeconomic data.
On Tuesday, we are expecting the release of the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 2:00 pm GMT. The forecast suggests a decline in the March figures from 102.9 to 101.0.
On Wednesday, we are expecting a release of the U.S. Pending Home Sales at 2:00 pm GMT. The month-over-month figures are projected at -3.0% against 8.1% in the previous period.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart of the GBP/USD pair, we witness a resistance at 1.2323 being tested. That said, it is yet unclear whether or not this level will be broken out. The position of the price in terms of this horizontal will most likely become clearer after the meeting of the Bank of England.
The AUD/USD pair has been maintaining a sideways trend for the third week in a row. Meanwhile, an improved risk appetite in the broader market prompted a local recovery observed on Tuesday.
Possible technical scenarios:
The AUD/USD pair continues to trade in a narrow sideway range between 0.6634 and 0.6722. The pair currently has a movement range toward the corridor’s upper boundary. If it is broken out, 0.6798 will serve as the next target for strengthening.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Australian inflation data will be released on Wednesday at 12:30 am GMT. The Consumer Price Index YoY is expected to decline from 7.4% to 7.1%.
In the meantime, the dynamics of the U.S. dollar in the pair will be affected by more than just changing risk appetite.
On Tuesday, its volatility may be sensitive to the release of the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 2:00 pm GMT, especially if the figures turn out to be higher or lower than expected. The forecast suggests a drop in figures from 102.9 to 101.0.
On Wednesday, we are expecting a release of the U.S. Pending Home Sales at 2:00 pm GMT. The month-over-month figures are projected at -3.0% against 8.1% previously.
Intraday technical picture:
On the 4H chart of the AUD/USD pair, the price is making attempts to consolidate above the intermediate support at 0.6669 which creates preconditions for the pair to continue to recover in the corridor between 0.6634 and 0.6722.
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