The EUR/USD pair has been attempting to recover from Friday's lows early this week. That being said, the rise in quotes has been moderate and we will need fundamental volatility catalysts for it to speed up.
Possible technical scenarios:
As can be seen in the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair has been trading in the middle of a sideways range between 1.0808 and 1.0958. From a technical standpoint, the pair can move to any of the boundaries of the flat from this area. An attempt to recover from the current values does not rule out the possibility of an upward movement.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The dynamics of the euro may increase following the release of the euro area inflation figures on Wednesday and the rhetoric of the president of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde on Thursday at 9:00 am GMT.
Core CPI YoY is expected to drop from 5.7% to 5.6%. In the meantime, the CPI MoM will fall from 0.9% to 0.7% and will increase from 6.9% to 7.0% year-over-year.
We are waiting for the Initial Jobless Claims in the United States on Thursday at 12:30 pm GMT. 254K claims are expected as compared to 264K previously.
Intraday technical picture:
The 4H chart of the EUR/USD pair shows that the consolidation in the middle of the sideways range between 1.0808 and 1.0958 keeps the pair at a crossroads. A volatility spike and clarity regarding the further price movement direction are not ruled out following the release of the news from the euro area.
The pound sterling fell on Tuesday against the backdrop of the increasing British unemployment. Market players interpreted these figures as a possible reason for the slowdown in interest rate hikes by the Bank of England. That being said, the GBP/USD quotes remain within the four-week sideways range.
Possible technical scenarios:
The GBP/USD pair has been trading in the middle of the corridor between 1.2410 and 1.2601. The price has been consolidating in its lower portion, below the interim resistance at 1.2525 marked with dotted lines. From a technical perspective, both a pullback to support at 1.2410 and a breakout and consolidation above 1.2525 are likely from this area. This will pave the way for a further increase toward 1.2601.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
In the days to come, the pound sterling may be somewhat sensitive to the rhetoric of the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey who is expected to speak on Wednesday at 9:50 am GMT.
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England will hold a hearing on Thursday at 9:15 am GMT. This may result in a local spike in volatility should any statements regarding further monetary policy be made during it.
A weekly data on Initial Jobless Claims in the United States will be published on Thursday at 12:30 pm. This may have a local impact on the dynamics of the U.S. dollar in the pair.
Intraday technical picture:
The 4H chart suggests that the GBP/USD pair is going down, leaving false breakouts of the resistance level at 1.2525 marked with dotted lines. This opens the way for quotes to decline toward the support level at 1.2410.
The AUD/USD pair continues to demonstrate the sideways dynamic in the medium term, being on the way toward the wide corridor’s support. Volatility catalysts were not enough to ruin this technical picture despite past weeks’ critical fundamental events.
Possible technical scenarios:
AUD/USD quotes are currently on their way toward the lower boundary of the sideways range between support at 0.6567 and resistance at 0.6798. While the price is stopped by 0.6631 which serves as the interim support level, its breakout and movement towards the target at 0.6567 are not ruled out.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Fundamental catalysts for intraday volatility for AUD/USD were released on Thursday.
The Australian labor market report for the month of April will be released at 1:30 am GMT. The change in the employment rate is projected at 25.0 thousand as compared to 53.0 thousand previously. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%.
The Initial Jobless Claims in the United States are to be released at 12:30 pm GMT. In the course of the week, we are expecting 254K claims as compared to 264K previously.
Intraday technical picture:
As we can see in the 4H chart of the AUD/USD pair, the price is consolidating at the interim support level of 0.6669. Unless it is broken out, the pair may locally recover to the highs of Friday and Monday trading sessions.
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