The new week of December is crucial for global financial markets, with Wednesday standing out as the most important day: the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and the FOMC statement are both scheduled. Also in focus are rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Bank of Canada (BoC), and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), all of which are expected to keep the monetary policies unchanged amid growing expectations of upcoming easing in the US.
China:
● 3:00 a.m. GMT: Trade Balance (USD) (November). Actual: 111.68B; Previous: 90.07B; Forecast: 105.00B. A significantly larger-than-expected surplus supports positive sentiment in commodity markets and may boost the Australian dollar.
Australia:
● 3:30 a.m. GMT: RBA Interest Rate Decision (December). Previous: 3.60%; Forecast: 3.60%. Critical for the AUD! Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but any hawkish or dovish adjustments in the statement could cause sharp volatility in the Australian dollar.
Germany:
● 7:00 a.m. GMT: Trade Balance (October). Forecast: 15.6B; Previous: 15.3B. A widening trade surplus may offer modest support to the euro.
United States:
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: JOLTS Job Openings (October). Forecast: 7.200M; Previous: 7.227M. A decline would reinforce signs of a weakening labor market and strengthen expectations for a Fed rate cut.
Canada:
● 2:45 p.m. GMT: BoC Interest Rate Decision & Statement. Forecast: 2.25%; Previous: 2.25%. Rates are expected to remain unchanged. Any comments highlighting weak consumer demand may pressure the Canadian dollar.
United States:
● 3:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: 0.574M. This weekly report typically influences global energy prices.
● 7:00 p.m. GMT: Fed Interest Rate Decision & FOMC Statement. Forecast: 3.75%; Previous: 4.00%. MAIN EVENT OF THE WEEK! A 25 bp cut is widely expected. If delivered, the USD may continue its downward trajectory.
● 7:00 p.m. GMT: FOMC Economic Forecasts (Dot Plot). Future rate projections will be crucial for shaping long-term USD sentiment.
Switzerland:
● 8:30 a.m. GMT: Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision (Q4). Forecast: 0.00%; Previous: 0.00%. Rates are expected to remain unchanged. Any hints regarding potential currency interventions could impact the Swiss franc.
United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 221K; Previous: 191K. A higher-than-expected increase in claims would confirm labor market softening and weigh on the dollar.
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Trade Balance (September). Forecast: -64.70B; Previous: -59.60B. A widening trade deficit may exert moderate pressure on the USD.
United Kingdom:
● 7:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Month-over-Month) (October). Forecast: 0.1%; Previous: -0.1%. An expected rebound could lend support to the pound.
Germany:
● 7:00 a.m. GMT: CPI (Month-over-Month) (November). Forecast: -0.2%; Previous: -0.2%. A key inflation update from the eurozone’s largest economy.
Canada:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Wholesale Sales (Month-over-Month) (October). Forecast: -0.1%; Previous: 0.6%. A sharp decline is expected, signaling weakening economic momentum and potentially pressuring the CAD.
● Monetary Divergence: While the Fed is shifting toward a more dovish stance, rate decisions from the RBA, BoC, and SNB — all expected to keep rates unchanged — create favorable conditions for AUD, CAD, and CHF to strengthen against the US dollar.
● US Labor Market: This week’s JOLTS report (Tuesday) and unemployment data (Thursday) will be closely evaluated for signs of labor market weakness. Such confirmation is essential for validating the rationale behind a Fed rate cut.
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