Markets continue to operate in high-tension mode this week. The primary focus remains on the major economies' efforts to stave off recession amid escalating geopolitical instability. It’s worth paying particular attention to the US labor market and inflation expectations in Europe. Geopolitics remains the ultimate wildcard capable of nullifying technical analysis at any moment. With that in mind, we recommend sticking to discipline and placing your stop-loss orders without fail this week.
Eurozone
2:00 p.m. GMT: ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks. This is the day's key event for the euro. Traders will be scanning for signals on whether the ECB is prepared to overlook geopolitical risks in its fight against inflation. Hawkish rhetoric will support the EUR.
United States
2:45 / 3:00 p.m. GMT: Manufacturing PMI (February). (Forecast: 51.2 / 51.7). A slight cooling in the sector is expected. If data misses the forecast, it will fuel concerns regarding a US economic slowdown and cause local dollar weakness.
Eurozone
10:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (February). (Forecast: 1.7%; Previous: 1.7%). This is a critical inflation marker. Stability at low levels would give the ECB more room to maneuver. This may weaken the EUR in the short term.
United Kingdom
10:00 a.m. GMT: Spring Budget Forecast. This is expected to be a high-volatility event for the pound. Against a backdrop of political reshuffling, any news regarding tax changes could send GBP/USD to test new lows.
Australia
12:30 a.m. GMT: GDP (Year-over-Year) (Q4). (Forecast: 2.1%; Previous: 2.1%). This is an indicator of the Aussies’ resilience. Any deviation from the forecast will set the trend for AUD pairs throughout the Asian session.
China
1:30 a.m. GMT: Manufacturing PMI (February). (Forecast: 49.1; Previous: 49.3). China remains in a stagnation zone. If data confirms a drop below 49.0, it will serve as a negative signal for oil and commodity currencies.
United States
1:15 p.m. GMT: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (February). (Forecast: 49K; Previous: 22K). This is the traditional leading indicator ahead of Friday's data. A sharp spike in employment will drive dollar strength.
3:00 p.m. GMT: ISM Services PMI. (Forecast: 53.5; Previous: 53.8). Given that the service sector is the backbone of the US economy, readings above 54.0 could trigger a rally in American indices.
Switzerland
9:30 a.m. GMT: SNB Press Conference. The Swiss franc is often utilized as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical turmoil. Keep a close watch of regulator comments regarding currency interventions.
Eurozone
10:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Year-over-Year) (Q4). (Forecast: 1.3%; Previous: 1.4%). The final assessment of EU economic growth for the past year. Weak data would confirm Europe's status as a “laggard region," limiting euro upside.
United States
12:30 p.m. GMT: Retail Sales (January). (Forecast: -0.3%; Previous: 0.0%). This is going to be the week's key report. If retail figures turn negative, it will confirm that high rates have finally begun to stifle consumer demand.
Geopolitical premium: Keep in mind that gold and oil are currently trading “off-calendar." Any breaking news headline carries more weight than Swiss GDP or Chinese PMI.
The ADP and retail sales link: Thursday and Friday will determine how the dollar closes the week. If employment readings—ADP—rise while sales fall, expect high volatility in the EUR/USD pair.
The Lagarde Monday trap: Do not rush to open trades immediately as the speech begins. The market often offers a false impulse on initial headlines, while the true move takes shape toward the end of the address.
Discipline and capital: In weeks like this, risk management is more important than strategy. If volatility makes you uneasy, reduce your lot size or consider switching to prop trading, where your personal risks are limited to the challenge fees.
We wish you all a successful week and a cool head to weather the current turbulence!
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