The first week of February is expected to be high-impact and highly volatile for global financial markets. Traders will witness many interest rate decisions from major central banks — Australia, the UK, and the Eurozone — while the week will culminate with the release of US Non-Farm Payrolls. This report is likely to define the dollar’s direction for the entire month. In the meantime, PMI data will be closely watched to assess recession risks across manufacturing and services.
United States
2:45 p.m. GMT: Manufacturing PMI (January). Forecast: 51.9; Previous: 51.8.
3:00 p.m. GMT: ISM Manufacturing PMI (January). Forecast: 48.5; Previous: 47.9. Market focus is firmly on the ISM release. Despite expected improvement, readings below 50 still signal contraction. A reading above 48.5 would provide short-term support for the USD, reinforcing the stance that the US economy remains resilient despite elevated interest rates.
Australia
3:30 a.m. GMT: RBA Interest Rate Decision (February). Forecast: 3.85%; Previous: 3.60%.
A key event for the Australian dollar. Markets are pricing in an aggressive 25 bp rate hike. If the RBA confirms its hawkish stance, AUD/USD could push toward new local highs.
United States
3:00 p.m. GMT: JOLTS Job Openings (December). Forecast: 7.210M; Previous: 7.146M. This is an important gauge of labor demand. An increase would serve as a signal to the Fed that the labor market remains overheated, which supports the USD and weighs on gold.
9:30 p.m. GMT: API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: -0.247M. This is a traditional overnight driver for oil markets. A drop in inventory may support Brent and WTI before the release of official data on Wednesday.
Eurozone
9:00 a.m. GMT:
Services PMI (January). Forecast: 51.9; Previous: 51.9.
S&P Global Composite PMI (January). Forecast: 51.5; Previous: 51.5. Stability above the 50 threshold remains crucial for the euro. Any downside surprise would strengthen narratives of economic stagnation in the EU.
10:00 a.m. GMT: CPI (Year-over-Year) (January). Forecast: 1.8%; Previous: 1.9%. A further slowdown below the ECB’s 2% target would give central bank policymakers greater room for softer policy, potentially pressuring EUR/USD.
United States
1:15 p.m. GMT: ADP Non-Farm Payrolls (January). Forecast: 48K; Previous: 41K. A leading indicator ahead of Friday’s NFP. A strong increase in employment figures would support the USD ahead of the US session.
2:45 p.m. GMT: Services PMI (January). Forecast: 52.5; Previous: 52.5.
3:00 p.m. GMT: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (January). Forecast: 53.8; Previous: 53.8. With services accounting for roughly 80% of the US economy, maintaining readings above 53 would confirm the soft landing for the economy.
3:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: -2.295M. The Department of Energy data is a key catalyst for energy markets and USD/CAD volatility.
United Kingdom
12:00 p.m. GMT: BoE Interest Rate Decision (February). Forecast: 3.75%; Previous: 3.75%.
A pause is expected. Volatility will be driven by the meeting minutes, particularly the number of policymakers favoring a rate cut.
Eurozone
1:15 p.m. GMT:
ECB Interest Rate Decision (February). Forecast: 2.15%; Previous: 2.15%.
ECB Press Conference. This is the key event for the European currency. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but Lagarde’s rhetoric regarding the March meeting could trigger sharp moves in EUR/USD.
United States
1:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 213K; Previous: 209K. This is a weekly gauge measuring the health of the economy. A modest increase in line with the forecast is unlikely to alter market sentiment.
United States
1:30 p.m. GMT:
Average Hourly Earnings (Month-over-Month) (January). Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.3%.
Non-Farm Payrolls (January). Forecast: 67K; Previous: 50K.
Unemployment Rate (January). Forecast: 4.4%; Previous: 4.4%. Non-Farm Payrolls is the climax of the week. Markets expect a modest job increase. A reading above 70K could trigger a USD rally, while a weaker-than-expected figure below 50K may send the dollar into a deeper corrective phase.
Central Bank Week: Tuesday (AUD) and Thursday (GBP, EUR) are high-risk trading days for the respective currencies. Use stop-loss orders and avoid entering trades during the first 15 minutes after rate decisions are released.
Focus on NFP (Friday): This is the most important event of the week. Volatility in EUR/USD and gold is expected to peak at 1:30 p.m. GMT. Closing short-term positions ahead of the release is advised.
Oil and the Canadian Dollar: The combination of crude oil inventory data (Wednesday) and elevated USD volatility makes CAD cross rates appealing from a technical standpoint during the week.
EU Inflation: If Wednesday’s data confirms a slowdown in CPI to 1.8%, short positions with the EUR may take priority for the remainder of the week.
Wishing you a successful trading week and winning trades!
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