Following last week’s heated discussions on inflation and employment, the current five-day stretch appears calmer yet remains pivotal for long-term trends. The spotlight will be on the FOMC meeting minutes, which will reveal the Fed's true sentiment, and on US GDP data, which could confirm or challenge the resilience of the American economy. With fewer "major" headlines expected, the market may become more sensitive to technical levels and speeches from central bank officials.
United States
1:25 p.m. GMT: FOMC Member Michelle Bowman Speaks. Michelle Bowman is known for her cautious and occasionally hawkish stance. Her comments on inflation could support the dollar early in the session if she reaffirms the Fed's intent to keep rates elevated for longer.
Germany
7:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (January). (Forecast: 0.1%; Previous: 0.1%). Confirmation of stagnating inflation in the EU's largest economy could heighten pressure on the euro, providing the ECB with a reason to discuss policy easing.
Eurozone
10:00 a.m. GMT: Eurogroup Meeting. Discussions will focus on budgetary policy and the region’s economic outlook. Traders should keep a close watch on post-meeting statements, as local volatility in EUR pairs may be present.
Canada
1:30 p.m. GMT: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (January). (Previous: 2.8%). This is a key indicator for the Bank of Canada. Inflation rising above 2.8% could trigger a CAD rally against the US Dollar.
United Kingdom
7:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (January). (Forecast: 3.0%; Previous: 3.4%). A significant slowdown in inflation is expected. If the figure drops to 3.0%, it will serve as a dovish signal for the pound, giving the Bank of England more room to consider rate cuts.
Eurozone
5:00 p.m. GMT: ECB Representative Isabel Schnabel Speaks. Isabel Schnabel often sets the tone for market expectations regarding European interest rates.
United States
7:00 p.m. GMT: FOMC Meeting Minutes. The main event of Wednesday. The Fed minutes will reveal how concerned policymakers are about recent data. If the minutes lean hawkish, the dollar could strengthen sharply toward the session close.
Eurozone
9:00 a.m. GMT: ECB Monthly Report. An assessment of the region's current economic situation.
United States
1:30 p.m. GMT: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (February). (Forecast: 7.8; Previous: 12.6). A significant decline in activity is anticipated. Weak data could put local pressure on the dollar.
1:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. (Forecast: 229K; Previous: 227K). Labor market stability is key to Fed policy. A higher-than-expected rise in claims would be a negative for the USD.
5:00 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. (Previous: 8.530M). Following last week's spike in oil inventories, traders will be watching the trend closely. A further surplus could drive Brent and WTI prices lower.
United States
1:30 p.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q4). (Forecast: 2.8%; Previous: 4.4%). A serious slowdown in growth rates is expected. If the data comes in below the 2.8% forecast, it will confirm an economic cooling and could trigger a dollar sell-off.
1:30 p.m. GMT: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Year-over-Year) (December). (Forecast: 3.0%; Previous: 2.8%). Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A rise to 3.0% would be a surprise that could reignite demand for the safe-haven dollar and hit stock indices.
1. Stay cautious on Wednesday evening: The FOMC minutes at 7:00 p.m. GMT always bring turbulence. Avoid leaving USD positions open without stop-loss orders ahead of the release.
2. Pound in focus: Wednesday morning will be decisive for the GBP/USD pair. A sharp drop in UK inflation could open the door for Sterling sell-offs.
3. GDP as the week’s finale: Friday promises volatility at 1:30 p.m. GMT. The combination of GDP and PCE data may set the market direction for the entire following week.
4. Technical analysis takes center stage: Since the macroeconomic backdrop is moderate this week, make sure to pay closer attention to trendlines and technical indicators.
We wish you a profitable week and systematic trades only!
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