Global markets closed the week digesting a series of key central bank decisions and critical economic indicators. The spotlight was on GDP and inflation figures, along with remarks from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada, which shaped the latest currency trends and investor sentiment.
Canada:
● Wholesale Sales (Month-over-Month) (June). Actual figure: 0.7% / Forecast: 0.1% / Previous: 0.1%. The indicator exceeded expectations, offering support to the Canadian dollar.
United States:
● CB Consumer Confidence Index (July). Actual figure: 97.2 / Forecast: 95.9 / Previous: 93.0. Stronger-than-expected data indicated rising consumer optimism, providing a boost to the U.S. dollar.
● JOLTS Job Openings (June). Actual figure: 7.437M / Forecast: 7.490M / Previous: 7.769M. The lower-than-expected reading pointed to signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market.
Australia:
● Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Actual figure: 0.7% / Forecast: 0.8% / Previous: 0.9%. Inflation came in slightly below expectations, potentially weighing on the Australian dollar.
Germany:
● GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Actual figure: -0.1% / Forecast: -0.1% / Previous: 0.4%. The contraction confirmed recessionary risks in the German economy.
Eurozone:
● GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Actual figure: 0.1% / Forecast: 0.0% / Previous: 0.6%. A modest increase in Eurozone GDP offered limited short-term support for the euro.
Canada:
● Interest Rate Decision. Actual figure: 2.75% / Forecast: 2.75% / Previous: 2.75%. As expected, the Bank of Canada held rates steady, shifting investor focus to forward guidance.
United States:
● ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (July). Actual figure: 104K / Forecast: 77K / Previous: -23K. The stronger-than-expected increase in private payrolls supported the U.S. dollar and raised expectations for Friday’s NFP release.
● GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Actual figure: 3.0% / Forecast: 2.5% / Previous: -0.5%. The robust GDP growth figure significantly reinforced the U.S. dollar.
● Crude Oil Inventories. Actual figure: 7.698M / Forecast: -2.300M / Previous: -3.169M. A smaller-than-expected draw in inventories put pressure on oil prices.
● Fed Interest Rate Decision. Actual figure: 4.50% / Forecast: 4.50% / Previous: 4.50%. Rates were held steady as anticipated. FOMC Press Conference. Comments from Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s hawkish stance, offering continued support to the U.S. dollar.
China:
● Индекс деловой активности в производственном секторе (PMI) (июль). Факт: 49,3 / Прогноз: 49,7 / Пред.: 49,7. Сохранение показателя PMI ниже 50 указывает на сжатие в производственном секторе.
Japan:
● Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 0.50% / Previous: 0.50%. The Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
Germany:
● Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (July). Actual: 0.3% / Forecast: 0.2% / Previous: 0.0%. The increase in inflationary pressure may provide additional support to the euro.
United States:
● Core PCE Price Index (Month-over-Month) (June). Actual figure: 0.3% / Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.2%. As a key Fed metric, the rise in the Core PCE index offered further support to the dollar.
United States:
● Average Hourly Earnings (Month-over-Month) (July). Actual figure: 3,9% / Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.2%. An increase in wages could indicate persistent inflationary pressure.
● Nonfarm Payrolls (July). Actual figure: 73К / Forecast: 108K / Previous: 14K. A slowdown in job growth may weigh on the dollar.
● Unemployment Rate (July). Forecast: 4.2% / Previous: 4.1%.
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