Weekly Macroeconomic Highlights: July 14—July 18, 2025

This week, global markets reacted actively to the release of key economic data, creating new dynamics for currencies and investor expectations.

Monday, July 14

Canada:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Wholesale Sales (Month-over-Month) (May). Actual figure: 0.1% / Forecast: -0.4% / Previous: -2.2%. The indicator showed an increase against the forecast for a decrease, which is positive for CAD.

Tuesday, July 15

China:
● 2:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Year-over-Year) (Q2). Actual figure: 5.2% / Forecast: 5.4% / Previous: 5.4%.

Eurozone:
● 9:00 a.m. GMT: Industrial Production (Month-over-Month) (May). Actual figure: 1.7% / Forecast: 1.1% / Previous: -2.2%. A strong increase in industrial production, which exceeded forecasts, supported the EUR.
● 9:00 a.m. GMT: ZEW Economic Sentiment (July). Actual figure: 36.1 / Forecast: 37.8 / Previous: 35.3.

United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (June). Actual figure: 0.2% / Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.1%. The index was slightly below forecast, which slightly reduced inflationary pressures. ● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (June). Actual figure: 0.3% / Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.1%.

Wednesday, July 16

United Kingdom:
● 6:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (June). Actual figure: 3.6% / Forecast: 3.4% / Previous: 3.4%. Inflation accelerated more than expected, which could prompt the Bank of England to tighten policy and support the GBP.

United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: PPI (Month-over-Month) (June). Actual figure: 0.0% / Forecast: 0.2%.
● 2:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Actual figure: -3.859M / Forecast: -1.800M / Previous: 7.070M. Oil inventories fell more than expected, supporting oil prices.

Japan:
● 11:50 p.m. GMT: Trade Balance (June). Actual figure: 153.1B / Forecast: 353.9B / Previous: -638.6B. Japan's trade balance came in significantly below expectations, negative for the JPY.

Thursday, July 17

Eurozone:
● 9:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Year-over-Year) (June). Actual figure: 2.0% / Forecast: 2.0% / Previous: 1.9%. Eurozone inflation remained at the ECB's target.

United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Core Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (June). Actual figure: 0.5% / Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: -0.2%.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Actual figure: 221K / Forecast: 233K / Previous: 228K.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (June). Actual figure: 0.6% / Forecast: 0.1% / Previous: -0.9%. Overall retail sales rose strongly, which is positive for the US economy.

Friday, July 18

Germany:
● 6:00 a.m. GMT: German PPI (Month-over-Month) (June). Actual figure: 0.1% / Forecast: 0.1% / Previous: -0.2%.

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