What’s Ahead: Weekly Macroeconomic Calendar for June 30 - July 4, 2025

A packed week ahead with fresh economic data and central bankers stepping up to the mic. Buckle up — volatility is likely, and opportunities are out there!

Monday, June 30

United Kingdom:
● 6:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q1). Actual figure: 0.7% / Forecast: 0.7% / Previous: 0.1%. A positive reading for the British pound, reflecting stable economic growth.
● 6:00 a.m. GMT: GDP (Year-over-Year) (Q1). Actual figure: 1.3% / Forecast: 1.3% / Previous: 1.5%. Although annual growth slowed slightly, the result remains moderately supportive for the GBP.

Germany:
● 12:00 p.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Month-over-Month) (June). Forecast: 0.2% / Previous: 0.1%. A faster pace of inflation could reinforce expectations for ECB tightening and support the euro.

Tuesday, July 1

China:
● 1:45 a.m. GMT: Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Month-over-Month) (June). Forecast: 49.2 / Previous: 48.3. A modest improvement, though still under 50, may weigh on global risk sentiment.

Eurozone:
● 9:00 a.m. GMT: Consumer Price Index (Year-over-Year) (June). Forecast: 2.0% / Previous: 1.9%. A rise in inflation could increase expectations of a more hawkish ECB, lending support to the EUR.
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: ECB President Lagarde speaks. Policy tone may influence EUR volatility.

United States:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Fed Chair Powell speaks. Markets will pay close attention for clues about future monetary policy, potentially triggering USD volatility.
● 1:45 p.m. GMT: Manufacturing PMI (June). Forecast: 52.0 / Previous: 52.0. A steady figure would suggest ongoing strength in the manufacturing sector, positive for the USD.

Wednesday, July 2

Unoted States:
● 12:15 p.m. GMT: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (June). Forecast: 105K / Previous: 37K. A stronger reading could boost the USD by confirming labor market resilience.
● 2:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: -5.836M. A significant draw could lend support to oil prices.

Thursday, July 3

United States:
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 239K / Previous: 236K. Better-than-expected data would point to labor market strength and support the USD.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Nonfarm Payrolls (June). Forecast: 120K / Previous: 139K. A slowdown in job creation could pressure the USD.
● 12:30 p.m. GMT: Unemployment Rate (June). Forecast: 4.3% / Previous: 4.2%. A slight rise in unemployment may be viewed as negative for the dollar.

Japan:
● 11:30 p.m. GMT: Household Spending Index (Month-over-Month) (May). Forecast: 0.4% / Previous: -1.8%. An increase would signal improved consumer activity, likely supportive of the yen.

Friday, July 4

Eurozone:
● 7:30 a.m. GMT: ECB President Lagarde speaks. Her remarks could cause EUR volatility depending on the policy stance.

Tips for Traders for This Week:

● Expect volatility: Speeches by central bank officials and key inflation and labor data are likely to generate sharp market reactions.
● Monitor inflation trends: CPI readings in the Eurozone and Germany will be key drivers for the EUR.
● Focus on U.S. employment data: ADP, Nonfarm Payrolls, and unemployment figures will be critical for shaping short-term USD sentiment.
● Stick to your risk management plan: Elevated volatility means risk management is vital; use stop loss orders and avoid overexposure.

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